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German recession? Wait before panicking – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 13, 2019 at 3:37 pm GMT

The Eurozone is expected to confirm its initial GDP growth estimate for the third quarter on Thursday at 0.2% q/q but prior that all attention will be on the German preliminary readings (06:00 GMT) that are forecast to show that the bloc’s largest economy is in recession, probably bringing another headwind to the bleeding euro. However, it is not time to panic yet. A recession may have been avoided in the last minute, consumption helpful too According to forecasts, the German [..]

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Solid Q3 GDP for Japan, but weakness ahead? – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 13, 2019 at 1:50 pm GMT

Japanese GDP numbers for Q3 are coming up during the early Asian session on Thursday (Wednesday 23:50 GMT). Forecasts point to a solid quarter, as domestic demand remained strong even despite global worries keeping a lid on exports. That said, much of that strength was likely owed to consumers front-loading purchases ahead of a planned VAT increase, so the next quarter may be especially weak as consumption falters. As for the yen, it has gotten beaten up recently, but if [..]

Mighty dollar eyes Powell’s testimony and US data – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 12, 2019 at 2:10 pm GMT

It’s going to be a busy week in America, with the latest CPI inflation figures hitting the markets at 13:30 GMT on Wednesday, before retail sales data are released on Friday. Two separate testimonies by Fed chief Jay Powell before Congress on Wednesday (16:00 GMT) and Thursday (15:00 GMT) are bound to attract attention too, even if he is unlikely to say anything new. As for the dollar, the near-term outlook remains favorable, particularly against the stricken euro. Humming along [..]

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Australian wages and jobs data could hold key to future rate cuts – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 11, 2019 at 4:11 pm GMT

Labour market indicators will be watched out of Australia next week as the closely watched data could provide clues as to whether or not the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower rates again in the coming months. The quarterly wage price index is released on Wednesday at 0030 GMT and employment numbers will follow at the same time on Thursday. Although investors have priced out further aggressive easing, the RBA remains glum about wage and inflation prospects, leaving the door [..]

RBNZ to likely cut rates; may be its last but kiwi not yet convinced – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 11, 2019 at 3:11 pm GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates for the third time this year on Wednesday (01:00 GMT) as growth worries persist in the export-driven economy. Despite some tepid signs that the recent reductions in borrowing costs are starting to feed through to the New Zealand economy, the risks remain tilted to the downside. Nevertheless, the decision is expected to be a close one and any hints that policymakers are steering away from further monetary easing [..]

UK jobs and inflation next after weaker GDP but sterling may be indifferent – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 11, 2019 at 2:04 pm GMT

Sterling drifted lower after two out of nine MPC members voted for an immediate rate cut on Thursday at the Bank of England’s policy meeting, increasing speculation that the British central bank could finally join the dovish camp. Following Monday’s disappointing GDP report, inflation, employment and retail sales data are expected to shed more light about whether a looser monetary policy is indeed needed. Yet, according to data forecasts, such a scenario may not take shape, at least not in the near term, [..]

Week ahead – German recession, RBNZ rate decision, and a flood of data

Posted on November 8, 2019 at 1:46 pm GMT

The RBNZ will be the lone major central bank to decide on rates next week, but that doesn’t mean the schedule is light, as there’s an abundance of key economic data ripe for release. German growth figures will reveal if the euro area’s traditional star player entered a technical recession, while in America, a testimony by Fed chief Jay Powell could provide clues around the recent ‘pause’ in rate cuts. Beyond regular economics, markets will keep a watchful eye on [..]

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UK GDP growth likely bounced back in Q3 but more weakness ahead – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 8, 2019 at 1:03 pm GMT

The coming week will be a data-heavy one for the United Kingdom and kicking things off on Monday will be third quarter GDP numbers along with the monthly breakdown of economic output, as well as trade figures for September. The data, due at 0930 GMT, are expected to point to a stagnant economy as Brexit and trade uncertainty take a toll. UK to avoid technical recession The British economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter, as production fell back [..]

China’s trade data may call for a phase one deal – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 7, 2019 at 11:02 am GMT

China is scheduled to report its trade statistics early on Friday at a time when Washington and Beijing are seeking to sign the so-called phase one deal possibly early next month. The results, however, followed by a not-so encouraging US trade report are expected to show that there is no winner or loser in this trade war, a sign that no side is likely to hold a negotiating advantage when the leaders finally meet. Trade war did not bring the [..]

Canadian employment data: A risk in disguise? – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 6, 2019 at 2:28 pm GMT

The latest jobs numbers out of Canada are due on Friday at 13:30 GMT, and forecasts point to another month of solid employment gains. Even though the labor market has been on an absolute tear this year, the Bank of Canada (BoC) just signaled that it may cut rates anyway as insurance against the trade war. The implication is that a strong report may be unable to lift the loonie much, whereas a disappointing one could send it plunging. Taking [..]

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