Special Reports

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Is the ‘party’ in gold just getting started? – Special Report

Posted on July 10, 2020 at 12:40 pm GMT

Gold prices keep rising, powered by a trifecta of uncertainty among investors, runaway government spending, and rock bottom interest rates for years to come. Even though the metal has already come a long way, there’s not much to stop it from grinding even higher to new record highs. Any more stimulus from the Fed for instance, like an introduction of yield curve control, could sink the dollar and turbocharge bullion. The main downside risk is a successful virus vaccine. Central [..]

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Fear gauge and gold are still flashing red; are stocks finally taking note? – Special Report

Posted on July 9, 2020 at 1:02 pm GMT

The resurgence in coronavirus cases appears to have put a pause on the relentless risk rally that has propelled global stocks to recoup almost 80% of the March crash. But as stocks drift sideways while investors re-evaluate the prospect of a V-shaped recovery, the bulls still seem to have the upper hand. A resumption of the uptrend looks like a stronger possibility than a downside correction judging by the market sentiment and technical indicators. However, the markets’ two best barometers [..]

Pound: six months remaining for a Brexit trade deal – Special report

Posted on July 9, 2020 at 12:50 pm GMT

While the world is nervous about the Covid-19 second wave, the British pound has another reason to worry about its recovery: the Brexit saga. Six months after its departure from the European Union, the UK has just started to negotiate the terms of a trade deal with the bloc. And while the blame for the slow progress could be largely placed on the social distancing orders, the latest unfruitful round of talks suggests that solidifying an agreement is extremely difficult [..]

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How sterling became a ‘risk’ currency, and what’s next – Special Report

Posted on June 26, 2020 at 12:46 pm GMT

The British pound has become very sensitive to changes in risk sentiment lately, with Cable transforming into a ‘risk on’ – ‘risk off’ pair whose fortunes are connected more to stock market performance than UK fundamentals. As such, a better proxy for Brexit developments in this new era may be euro/sterling. Overall, downside risks seem to outweigh upside ones for the pound right now, especially given the resurgence of infections globally and intensifying Brexit uncertainty, though a powerful rebound later [..]

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Emerging from lockdown: A V-Shaped recovery or false optimism? – Special Report

Posted on June 25, 2020 at 11:15 am GMT

Looking at how risk assets have been performing over the past three months, it’s hard to tell there’s a global pandemic going on. To put it into more context, if someone had been living on a desert island during this time, they would be forgiven for thinking that the world is in the midst of an economic boom when glancing at stock markets. But although there’s been no shortage of crisis response measures since the coronavirus outbreak erupted, how rational [..]

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Gold rally: Worth to hold your breath – Special Report

Posted on June 12, 2020 at 1:45 pm GMT

During market stress periods, safe-haven gold tends to generate strong returns, outperforming other alternative means of investment and hence moving rapidly in traders’ favor as a store of wealth. This year thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, the precious metal printed new multi-year highs capitalizing more than 12% year-to-date, while compared to the same period last year it managed to earn a whopping 29% annual increase. Markets are now wondering whether gold could look more ‘golden’ in the post-lockdown period, and [..]

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How the stock market took over the FX market – Special Report

Posted on June 12, 2020 at 12:42 pm GMT

Once upon a time in a pre-covid world, the currency market and the stock market were driven by different factors. Correlations between the two existed of course, but they were limited to a few pairs, like dollar/yen. Nowadays though, it feels like every FX chart is linked directly to risk sentiment and equity market performance, instead of cross-country fundamentals. What changed, and what would a stock correction from the current heights imply for the FX market?   The dollar: A [..]

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After incredible rally, oil outlook still uncertain as virus casts shadow over demand – Special Report

Posted on June 11, 2020 at 9:45 am GMT

Few would argue that 2020 has been a good year for oil after the market turmoil sparked by the coronavirus crisis sent WTI prices crashing into negative territory for the first time in the US benchmark’s history. But just as the unexplainable recovery of global equities, oil is looking bullish once again, at least in the medium-term timeframe. The encouraging signs of rebounding economic activity as businesses emerge from the virus shutdowns bode well for oil and other commodities. But [..]

Have stocks ‘gotten over’ the virus? – Special Report

Posted on May 27, 2020 at 3:53 pm GMT

There’s been a lot of talk for a powerful V-shaped recovery, but that has only happened in the stock market, which is ignoring the rising economic and geopolitical risks and is instead plowing higher, powered by a tsunami of stimulus. Alas, at current levels equities imply a ‘painless’ recession, which is probably much too rosy. Overall, so much optimism has been priced back in, that it would almost take a miracle for reality to match the stellar expectations. There is [..]

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Can the EU recovery fund change the euro’s fortunes? – Special Report

Posted on May 21, 2020 at 3:15 pm GMT

The euro finally found its footing this week, bolstered by a Franco-German plan for a European recovery fund worth half a trillion euros to assist the economies most devastated by the crisis. Although the proposal is a step in the right direction for establishing some debt-sharing mechanism that ultimately sets the stage for Eurobonds, its size is quite small and it will face fierce opposition from Northern European countries. Hence, while it diminishes some risks and could keep the euro [..]

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