Technical Analysis – US dollar index turns south from new multi-month high; halts at the 100-SMA


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

The US dollar index produced a new twenty-six-month high of 98.67. Sellers took control and logged a correction from the high on August 1 toppling the price to the 97.00 hurdle. The level is the 50.0% Fibo retracement of the up move from 95.34 to 98.67, coupled with the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

The MACD and the RSI are suggesting that a revival of the bullish directional momentum could evolve, as the RSI has rebounded off the 50 level from above, slightly rising. The MACD is in the positive region and has started to turn up for a cross above its red trigger line.

Upwards, the price would need to breach the 97.40 – 97.50 immediate resistances, before testing the 97.90 level, which is the 23.6% Fibo. With continued buying interest the next barrier would be the previous twenty-four-month high, from May 23 of 98.23, before the new twenty-six-month high of 98.67 can be revisited. Flying higher could bring Fibonacci extension levels into play.

In the downwards scenario, the 97.50 level would need to initially hold. More losses could drive the price below the 97.25 mid band, towards the 50.0% Fibo of 97.00, before support is found at 96.60 level. Shifting lower than the 61.8% Fibo and 200-day SMA, the lower Bollinger band and 96.00 psychological level become a target, once the swing low of 96.30 is surpassed.

Overall, the long- and short-term bullish bias is still on the table, but a close below the 96.30 swing low could bring back the neutral bias.